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Nordea: 25bp Hike, With Rates at 2.00% by Year-End

NORGES BANK
  • We expect Norges Bank to hike by 25bp in June and signal that the next rate hike will come at the meeting in August. We see the new rate path signalling overwhelming probability for four more rate hikes after June until the end of 2022.
  • We see the new rate path signalling overwhelming probability for four more rate hikes after June until the end of 2022 and a key rate at 3% by the end of 2023. Overall, the new rate path will surely be higher than the March rate path.
  • Our calculations show that the technical rate path (without Norges Bank’s judgment) could suggest a 50bp rate hike in June given the recent developments. Yet, we don’t expect Norges Bank to hike by 50bp in June because of the Committee’s judgment, and their desire for managing expectations and gradual rate hikes.
  • The Committee has time and time again used the judgment factor to hold down the pace of hikes compared to the modelled technical rate path since Norges Bank strongly prefers to raise interest rates gradually.
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