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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessNordea: 25bp Hike, With Rates at 2.00% by Year-End
- We expect Norges Bank to hike by 25bp in June and signal that the next rate hike will come at the meeting in August. We see the new rate path signalling overwhelming probability for four more rate hikes after June until the end of 2022.
- We see the new rate path signalling overwhelming probability for four more rate hikes after June until the end of 2022 and a key rate at 3% by the end of 2023. Overall, the new rate path will surely be higher than the March rate path.
- Our calculations show that the technical rate path (without Norges Bank’s judgment) could suggest a 50bp rate hike in June given the recent developments. Yet, we don’t expect Norges Bank to hike by 50bp in June because of the Committee’s judgment, and their desire for managing expectations and gradual rate hikes.
- The Committee has time and time again used the judgment factor to hold down the pace of hikes compared to the modelled technical rate path since Norges Bank strongly prefers to raise interest rates gradually.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.