CORRECTED-MNI: Fed's Hammack-Near Or At Time To Slow Rate Cuts

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Goolsbee Sees Rates Fair Bit Lower In A Year

CANADA JOBLESS RATE +6.8% VS FORECAST +6.6%, PRIOR +6.5%

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 6

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY288.1 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1848 Fri; -1.64% Y/Y

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT PRELIMINARY DEC INDEX 74.0

CANADA NOV IVEY PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 52.3 SA

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Recession Consensus Mounts: Timing/Severity Vary (3/4)

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
Several analysts now have a U.S. recession as their baseline view. The timing and severity differ but the expected start ranges from late 2022 through mid/late 2023, with GDP dropping by between -0.5% to -1.0%. (For reference, the current 2023 Bloomberg consensus forecast is +1.9% GDP growth).
  • Deutsche:"Our baseline forecast now sees sub-1% growth in the first half of 2023 and the first quarter of negative growth occurring in Q3 2023, one quarter earlier than previously. The upshot is that the economy is likely to contract next year by about 0.5%. A more severe downturn leads to a higher unemployment rate, which peaks near 5.5%. The weaker labor market helps to guide inflation closer to target by 2024, though we still anticipate a nearly half percent overshoot at that point...A more severe tightening of financial conditions could easily pull forward recession risks to around the turn of the year, which could short-circuit the Fed’s tightening cycle."
  • Nomura: "With rapidly slowing growth momentum and a Fed committed to restoring price stability, we believe a mild recession starting in Q4 2022 is now more likely than not. ... We lowered our real GDP growth forecast in 2022 to 1.8% y-o-y, down from 2.5%. In 2023, we expect real GDP to decline 1.0% y-o-y, down from +1.3% (+0.6% Q4/Q4)."
USHomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
USHomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.