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Policy
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Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
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Data
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Global Macro
Global Macro
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessRecession Consensus Mounts: Timing/Severity Vary (3/4)
- Deutsche:"Our baseline forecast now sees sub-1% growth in the first half of 2023 and the first quarter of negative growth occurring in Q3 2023, one quarter earlier than previously. The upshot is that the economy is likely to contract next year by about 0.5%. A more severe downturn leads to a higher unemployment rate, which peaks near 5.5%. The weaker labor market helps to guide inflation closer to target by 2024, though we still anticipate a nearly half percent overshoot at that point...A more severe tightening of financial conditions could easily pull forward recession risks to around the turn of the year, which could short-circuit the Fed’s tightening cycle."
- Nomura: "With rapidly slowing growth momentum and a Fed committed to restoring price stability, we believe a mild recession starting in Q4 2022 is now more likely than not. ... We lowered our real GDP growth forecast in 2022 to 1.8% y-o-y, down from 2.5%. In 2023, we expect real GDP to decline 1.0% y-o-y, down from +1.3% (+0.6% Q4/Q4)."
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.