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Record Gap In Consumer Sentiment Metrics

US
  • Conference Board consumer confidence fell in June as the present situation index was little changed (from a downward revised May) but expectations fell to a new low since Mar-2013.
  • The move sideways in the present situation measure helps open an even wider gap with its equivalent in the U.Mich survey, which last week was revised to a new all-time low of 53.8.
  • The gap between the two (with the Conference Board typically better reflecting the state of the labour market) has historically roughly trended with the slope of the yield curve, and currently implies an even further decline in 2s10s from the already very flat 8bps.

US U.Mich current conditions (white), Conf Board present situation (yellow), gap between the two (green) and UST 2s10s (pink)Source: Bloomberg

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