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CIBC and RBC On Upcoming GDP

CANADA
  • CIBC see GDP up +0.2% M/M in April per the advance release and expect similar only modest growth for the May flash as well.
  • “Declines in oil production and wholesale sales likely weighed on April’s figure, while advance data for May suggested a big drop in manufacturing shipments driven once again by the auto sector.”
  • However, with the expecting dampening effects on growth expected to have come from industries where supply constraints have been prevalent, this will unlikely provide any reassurance that it will cool inflation.
  • RBC look for +0.3% M/M in April and with a similar gain in May. They see activity being weighed on by the sharp pullback in housing markets but contrary to CIBC see oil & gas drilling & extraction rising and reopening sectors still rebounding.
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  • CIBC see GDP up +0.2% M/M in April per the advance release and expect similar only modest growth for the May flash as well.
  • “Declines in oil production and wholesale sales likely weighed on April’s figure, while advance data for May suggested a big drop in manufacturing shipments driven once again by the auto sector.”
  • However, with the expecting dampening effects on growth expected to have come from industries where supply constraints have been prevalent, this will unlikely provide any reassurance that it will cool inflation.
  • RBC look for +0.3% M/M in April and with a similar gain in May. They see activity being weighed on by the sharp pullback in housing markets but contrary to CIBC see oil & gas drilling & extraction rising and reopening sectors still rebounding.