MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP/USD Bullish Conditions Firm

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – GBP/USD Bullish Conditions Firm on Break Higher

• S&P E-Minis are trading at their recent highs and a bullish theme remains intact. Price has cleared resistance at 5600.75, the Aug 1 high and this signals scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded higher this week and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The contract pierced the 50-day EMA, at 4868.98. An extension higher would undermine the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal.
• GBPUSD bullish conditions remain intact. The pair has traded higher this week resulting in a break of key resistance at 1.3044, the Jul 17 high and a bull trigger. The clear breach of this hurdle strengthens a bullish condition and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. USDJPY continues to trade below the Aug 15 high, and firm resistance at the 20-day EMA is intact. The trend structure is bearish and MA studies remain in a bear-mode set-up. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low.USDCAD has traded lower this week, marking an extension of the bear cycle that started Aug 5. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme and has resulted in the break of a number of support points.
• Gold remains in a bull-mode condition and this week’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The recent breach of resistance at $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend.WTI futures have been unable to hold on to recent gains and the contract has traded lower this week, extending the bearish reversal. The latest move down exposes key support at $70.88, the Aug 5 low and the bear trigger.
• The trend condition in Bund futures is unchanged., it remains bullish. 133.21, the Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too. The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback still appears to be a correction. Note that the move lower has allowed an overbought trend reading to unwind. A resumption of bullish price action would signal scope for a climb towards 101.78.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Overbought But Remains Bullish  

• RES 4: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
• RES 3: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1201 1.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1174 High Aug 21
• PRICE: 1.1144 @ 05:54 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 1.1072/0973 Low Aug 19 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0896 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0736 Low Jul 3 

EURUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and this week’s appreciation reinforces the current set-up. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on 1.1201next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend has entered overbought territory and any corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Key short-term support is seen at 1.0973, the 20-day EMA.    

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance 

• RES 4: 1.3193 2.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing   
• RES 3: 1.3142 High Jul 14 ‘23 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.3140 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low
• RES 1: 1.3119 High Aug 21
• PRICE: 1.3084 @ 06:09 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 1.2975/2880 Low Jul 20 / 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.2821/2665 50-day EMA / Low Aug 8 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2584 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jul 17 bull cycle

GBPUSD bullish conditions remain intact. The pair has traded higher this week resulting in a break of key resistance at 1.3044, the Jul 17 high and a bull trigger. The clear breach of this hurdle strengthens a bullish condition and confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 22. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.3140/42, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low and the Jul 14’23 high. Firm support to watch is 1.2880, the 20-day EMA.               

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play 

• RES 4: 0.8715 High Dec 28    
• RES 3: 0.8677 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 ‘23 - Jul 17 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8593/8625 High Aug 14 / 8 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8516 @ 06:39 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 0.8508 Low Aug 19 
• SUP 2: 0.8499 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8454 Low Aug 2  
• SUP 4: 0.8418 Low Aug 1

EURGBP is unchanged and trades closer to its recent lows with a corrective cycle still in play. The move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. A firm support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 0.8499. A resumption of gains would open 0.8593, the Aug 14 high, ahead of 0.8625, the Aug 8 high and a bull trigger. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend. A break of the 50-day EMA would concern bulls.      

USDJPY TECHS: MA Studies Remain In A Bear-Mode Position      

• RES 4: 155.22 High Jul 30   
• RES 3: 152.19 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 150.89 High Aug 1     
• RES 1: 148.70 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 145.08 @ 06:29 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 144.29 Low Aug 7   
• SUP 2: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 2
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28   

USDJPY continues to trade below the Aug 15 high, and  firm resistance at the 20-day EMA is intact. The trend structure is bearish and MA studies remain in a bear-mode set-up. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the  bear trend. Resistance to watch is 148.70, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a stronger correction.    

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South    

• RES 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14  
• RES 3: 165.79 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 164.11 200 DMA      
• RES 1: 163.89 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 161.86 @ 06:55 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 159.79 Low Aug 12   
• SUP 2: 157.30/154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support

EURJPY continues to trade just below its recent highs. The outlook is bearish, and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Note that the latest move higher has allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The cross has pierced resistance at 163.14, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would expose the 50-day EMA, at 165.79. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and open 154.42, the Aug 5 low.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Sights Are On Key Resistance    

• RES 4: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance      
• RES 3: 0.6839 High Jan 2                   
• RES 2: 0.6799 High Jul 11 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6764 High Jul 16
• PRICE: 0.6741 @ 07:59 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 0.6630 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6571 Low Aug 15 
• SUP 3: 0.6508/6350 Low Aug 8/ 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23

A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair is trading at its recent highs. The latest gains have cancelled a recent bearish theme. Price has cleared 0.6693, 76.4% of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 bear leg. The clear break of this price point also strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for a climb towards 0.6799, the Jul 11 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.6571, the Aug 15 low.      

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Leg Extends    

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13, 2022
• RES 3: 1.3856/3946 High Aug 6 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3791 High Aug 7   
• RES 1: 1.3641/3714 High Aug 20 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3580@ 08:07 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 1.3576 Low Aug 21
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3500 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 1.3471 61.8% retracement of the Dec 27 - Aug 5 bull leg  

USDCAD has traded lower this week, marking an extension of the bear cycle that started Aug 5. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme and has resulted in the break of a number of support points. 1.3589, the Jul 11 low, has also been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. This sets the scene for an extension towards 1.3547, the Apr 9 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.3714, the 20-day EMA.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 136.99 3.382 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing        
• RES 3: 136.45 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 136.28 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger  
• RES 1: 135.17/135.59 High Aug 14 / 6                     
• PRICE: 134.75 @ 05:28 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 134.09 20-day EMA           
• SUP 2: 133.18 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 132.08 Low Jul 26   
• SUP 4: 131.62 Low Jul 22 and a key support 

The trend condition in Bund futures is unchanged., it remains bullish. 133.21, the Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too. A resumption of the trend would open 136.45, a Fibonacci retracement. The recent pullback has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 134.09, the 20-day EMA.    

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 119.730 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 3: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 2:  119.090 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger     
• RES 1: 118.300/118.530 High Aug 14 / 6                
• PRICE: 118.020 @ 05:41 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 117.697 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 117.205/116.700 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26   
• SUP 3: 116.320 Low Jul 22 
• SUP 4: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11

The uptrend in Bobl futures remains intact and the pullback from the Aug 5 high still appears to be a correction. The move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a breach of a key resistance at 117.160, Jun 14 high. This break, together with the subsequent impulsive rally, reinforces current conditions. First resistance to watch is 118.300, the Aug 14 high. Initial firm support is at 117.697, the 20-day EMA.             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Support At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact 

• RES 4: 107.120 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 106.916 1.764 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 1: 106.500/106.810 High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 106.315 @ 06:01 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 106.177 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 105.983/820 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26  
• SUP 3: 105.630/495 Low Jul 22 / 11 
• SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support 

An uptrend in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. For now, the contract continues to trade above a firm support at 106.177, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would be seen as an early bearish threat. Support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 105.983. For bulls, a resumption of gains would signal the end of the corrective cycle and open 106.916, a Fibonacci projection.                       

GILT TECHS: (U4) Bullish Structure                                          

• RES 4: 102.15 2.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 102.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 101.78 2.236 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 100.80/101.46 High Aug 14 / High Aug 5 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 100.04 @ Close Aug 21
• SUP 1: 99.59 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 98.91/98.34.46 50-day EMA / Low Jul 29    
• SUP 3: 97.46 Low Jul 26 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 96.96 Low Jul 3

The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback still appears to be a correction. Note that the move lower has allowed an overbought trend reading to unwind. A resumption of bullish price action would signal scope for a climb towards 101.78, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial key support lies at 99.59, the 20-day EMA. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend.      

BTP TECHS: (U4) Bullish Theme Exposes 120.00  

• RES 4: 121.25 2.382 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 120.85 2.236 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 2: 120.20 2.00 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 1: 120.00 Psychological round number 
• PRICE: 119.75 @ Close Aug 21
• SUP 1: 118.94/118.16 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: 117.36 Low Jul 26 
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8
• SUP 4: 114.72 Low Jul 2

The medium-term trend in BTP futures remains bullish and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 119.57, the Aug 2 high, has been breached and this confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break opens the 120.00 handle next. Price remains above initial firm support at 118.94, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 118.16. A clear breach of both EMAs would instead highlight a bearish threat and a potential reversal.                          

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Holding On To Its Recent Gains          

• RES 4: 5087.00 High Jul 12   
• RES 3: 4997.00 High Jul 17     
• RES 2: 4951.00 High Jul 31 and a key near-term resistance 
• RES 1: 4915.00 High Aug 22   
• PRICE: 4901.00 @ 06:26 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 4813.61 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 4665.00/4494.00 Low Aug 9 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 4424.64 61.8% of the Oct 27 ‘23 - May 16 bull cycle (cont)

Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded higher this week and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The contract pierced the 50-day EMA, at 4868.98. An extension higher would undermine the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 4951.00 next, the Jul 31 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 4494.00, the Aug 5 low.             

E-MINI S&P: (U4) Bull Cycle Still In Play        

• RES 4: 5821.25 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing  
• RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and Key resistance
• RES 1: 5664.00 High Jul 18       
• PRICE: 5641.25 @ 07:22 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: 5482.67 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 5438.75/5319.50 Low Aug 14 / 9 
• SUP 3: 5182.00 Low Aug 8 
• SUP 4: 5120.00 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger

S&P E-Minis are trading at their recent highs and a bullish theme remains intact. Price has cleared resistance at 5600.75, the Aug 1 high and this signals scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. A break would resume the primary uptrend. On the downside, support to watch lies at 5482.67, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it is required to instead highlight a potential bearish threat.   

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V4) Approaching Key Support  

• RES 4: $88.44 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $87.05 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $84.22 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 low 
• RES 1: $79.35/82.40 - 20-day EMA / High Aug 12 and key resistance     
• PRICE: $76.04 @ 06:56 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: $75.05 - Low Aug 5 and a key support  
• SUP 2: $74.96 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $73.31 - Low Dec 13 2023 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.60 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing   

Brent futures continue to trade below their recent highs and the contract maintains a softer tone as it extends the recent bearish reversal. The extent of the pullback undermines a recent bullish theme and instead, the move signals scope for a test of key support at $75.05, the Aug 5 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg that started Apr 12. Initial firm resistance is seen at $79.35, the 20-day EMA.    

WTI TECHS: (V4) Bear Threat Remains Present   

• RES 4: $83.45 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $82.62 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $80.82 - High Jul 18  
• RES 1: $75.25/78.54 - 20-day EMA / High Aug 12 and key resistance     
• PRICE: $71.83 @ 07:18 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: $70.88 - Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: $70.43 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $68.92 - Low Dec 13 2023
• SUP 4: $66.66 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing 

WTI futures have been unable to hold on to recent gains and the contract has traded lower this week, extending the bearish reversal. The latest move down exposes key support at $70.88, the Aug 5 low and the bear trigger. A break would resume the downtrend that started Apr 12. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $75.25, the 20-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $78.54, the Aug 12 high.    

GOLD TECHS: Northbound    

• RES 4: $2600.0 - Round number resistance    
• RES 3: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 ‘23 price swing
• RES 2: $2536.4 - 1.50 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing 
• RES 1: $2531.8 - High Aug 20                 
• PRICE: $2506.2 @ 07:13 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: $2452.8 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2409.1/2353.2 50-day EMA / Low Jul 25 
• SUP 3: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7 
• SUP 4: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support

Gold remains in a bull-mode condition and this week’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The recent breach of resistance at $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up and this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards $2536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $2452.8, the 20-day EMA.        

SILVER TECHS: Has Breached Resistance   

• RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg        
• RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $29.972 - High Aug 20                
• PRICE: $29.435 @ 08:09 BST Aug 22
• SUP 1: $27.484/26.451- Low Aug 15 / 8
• SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27 
• SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28 

A bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. The metal on Aug 8, traded to a fresh cycle low and this exposed at key support at $26.018, May 2 low. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme. Note that the 50-day EMA has been cleared and is a concern for bears. The next resistance to watch is $29.728, a Fibonacci retracement. It has been pierced, a clear breach would strengthen a bullish threat.