Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
This week starts off with little data of note on Monday.
Looking ahead, this week is quite busy for UK data (another strong labour report expected on Tuesday, CPI to jump to 9.3% on Wednesday, PSF on Thursday). Little US or Eurozone data will be of note at the beginning of the week.
Turkey Central Bank (Thursday)
The CBRT is anticipated to leave the one-week repo rate unchanged at 14.00%, as President Erdogan continues to apply unconventional macroeconomic policy of holding rates steady despite inflation soaring to +78.62% y/y in June.
South Africa Reserve Bank (Thursday)
The SARB is expected to hike by 50bp to 5.25%, with the June inflation rate due on Wednesday set to reach +6.8% y/y (vs. +6.5% in May). As such inflation will continue to exceed the 3-6% target range in upcoming months, however comments from the SARB over the last weeks have highlighted that policymakers continue to “take their foot of the accelerator”.
Bank of Japan (Thursday)
Also on Thursday the June headline CPI print will be released, whereby a 0.1pp uptick to +2.6% y/y is likely following May’s 7-year high. Despite inflationary pressures building and the Yen seeing stark depreciation, the BOJ is anticipated to leave the policy balance rate at -0.100%.
European Central Bank (Thursday)
A 25bp hike is the consensus expectation for the ECB this month, taking the main refinancing rate to 0.250%. MNI’s insider sources story notes that up to a 75bp hike cannot be completely ruled out. Markets will also be looking for further indications regarding the new anti-fragmentation tool. Recessionary risks remain heightened at present due to uncertainties regarding Russian gas supplies following maintenance and heading into the Winter.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 18/07/2022 | 0900/1000 |  | UK | BOE Saunders at Resolution Foundation (Time TBA) | |
| 18/07/2022 | 1215/0815 | ** |  | CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 18/07/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** |  | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 18/07/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 18/07/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 18/07/2022 | 2000/1600 | ** | | US | TICS |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.