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June Retail Contracts by 3.7%

EUROZONE DATA
MNI (London)

EUROZONE JUN RETAIL TRADE -1.2% M/M, -3.7% Y/Y (FCST -1.7% Y/Y); MAY +0.4%r Y/Y

  • The June data saw Eurozone retail trade weaker than anticipated, contracting by -1.2% m/m and by -3.7% y/y. The year-on-year print is a substantial 2.0pp below forecast and a 4.1pp slide from the soft May expansion.
  • The largest June year-on-year contractions were recorded by Denmark (-9.5%), Germany and Ireland (-8.8%) and the Netherlands (-6.1%).
  • This mirrors slowing consumer demand across the bloc, as PMIs flagged falling new orders. Inflation surged further to +8.9% y/y in July, which will likely see retail continue to suffer into the tail end of Summer as consumer confidence slips to record lows.
  • With CPI not yet showing signs of easing, the ECB appears to have sights set on prioritising front-loading policy normalisation to restore consumer confidence sooner rather than later.

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