Free Trial
LATAM

Uruguay Raises Reference Rate 50BPs to 11.25%

AUDUSD TECHS

Uptrend Extends

US TSYS

Late SOFR/Eurodollar/Treasury Option Roundup

US

Late Corporate Credit Risk Update

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

Policy Heads, Data, Geopol Risk Triggers Early Volatility

US TSYS

Tsys weaker after the bell, near middle of session range after volatile first half. Whippy price action after extending past overnight lows in early NY trade from nearly testing highs and now extending lows w/ 30YY tapping 3.2577% high. Several factors at play include policy headlines, geopol risk and data both domestic and foreign:

  • Tsys pared early gains as Richmond Fed Barkin discussed economic outlook, "RECESSION IS RISK IN GETTING INFLATION UNDER CONTROL .. DOESN'T EXPECT INFLATION TO COME DOWN IMMEDIATELY, Bbg.
  • Additional selling across the board on ECB'S KNOT comments/headlines: NOT CONVINCED THAT GOING BACK TO NEUTRAL ENOUGH .. MARKET PRICING OF RATE HIKE IN SEPT NOT UNWISE .. LEANING TOWARDS 75 BPS BUT OPEN TO DISCUSSION, Bbg.
  • Meanwhile, UK Gilt yields climbing to mid-2014 levels, 10Y 2.75%, 30Y 3.03% as Goldman Sachs analysts warn "UK inflation could top 22% next year if natural gas prices remain elevated in the coming months", Bbg.
  • Fast risk-off bid (that also spurred lows in stocks at the time on uptick in China/Taiwan tensions for risk-off move: headlines re: Taiwan fired warning shots at China drone spotted near an offshore island.
  • Midmorning JOLTs number surprised by 864k to the upside - that's the fourth largest upside surprise of the past decade (only beaten in April 2021, May 2020 and July 2021). Data likely to give the Fed confidence at their upcoming policy meeting for a large move, particularly if backed up by strong Aug employment read this Friday (+300k est vs. +528k prior).
  • Reminder, ADP will release it's retooled private-sector employment report early Wednesday (0815ET) after pausing the report back on June 30
264 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.

Tsys weaker after the bell, near middle of session range after volatile first half. Whippy price action after extending past overnight lows in early NY trade from nearly testing highs and now extending lows w/ 30YY tapping 3.2577% high. Several factors at play include policy headlines, geopol risk and data both domestic and foreign:

  • Tsys pared early gains as Richmond Fed Barkin discussed economic outlook, "RECESSION IS RISK IN GETTING INFLATION UNDER CONTROL .. DOESN'T EXPECT INFLATION TO COME DOWN IMMEDIATELY, Bbg.
  • Additional selling across the board on ECB'S KNOT comments/headlines: NOT CONVINCED THAT GOING BACK TO NEUTRAL ENOUGH .. MARKET PRICING OF RATE HIKE IN SEPT NOT UNWISE .. LEANING TOWARDS 75 BPS BUT OPEN TO DISCUSSION, Bbg.
  • Meanwhile, UK Gilt yields climbing to mid-2014 levels, 10Y 2.75%, 30Y 3.03% as Goldman Sachs analysts warn "UK inflation could top 22% next year if natural gas prices remain elevated in the coming months", Bbg.
  • Fast risk-off bid (that also spurred lows in stocks at the time on uptick in China/Taiwan tensions for risk-off move: headlines re: Taiwan fired warning shots at China drone spotted near an offshore island.
  • Midmorning JOLTs number surprised by 864k to the upside - that's the fourth largest upside surprise of the past decade (only beaten in April 2021, May 2020 and July 2021). Data likely to give the Fed confidence at their upcoming policy meeting for a large move, particularly if backed up by strong Aug employment read this Friday (+300k est vs. +528k prior).
  • Reminder, ADP will release it's retooled private-sector employment report early Wednesday (0815ET) after pausing the report back on June 30