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0.25% Jan-25

GILT AUCTION PREVIEW
  • The DMO will come to the market this morning to sell GBP3.25bln of the 3-year 0.25% Jan-25 gilt.
  • This will be the fifth auction of the gilt after it was launched in July, and then reopened in each of September, October and November. It has therefore been five months since the gilt was last on offer.
  • There has been a range of bid-to-covers acheived (1.96x - 2.81x) with the 1.96x seen at the November auction. The November auction also saw a relatively wide tail of 0.8bp (with the prior auctions 0.1bp, 0.2bp and 0.3bp respectively.
  • The previous auctions are probably only a rough guide to the level of demand given they were all before the November MPC meeting and in a completely different context in terms of inflationary / energy price outlook, BOE outlook and global geopolitical outlook.
  • This year's gilt auctions have all seen bid-to-covers in excess of 2x and tails of 0.3bp, 0.4bp and 0.7bp respectively.
  • Given the short maturity nature of today's auction, it may be attractive to foreign buyers looking for a safehaven holding. We would therefore expect to see a decent bid-to-cover but we may still see a relatively wide tail given the magnitude of recent market moves.
  • Timing: Results will be available shortly after the auction closes at 10:00GMT with a further GBP812.5mln availabel to successful bidders through the PAOF.
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