(1/2) Core CPI (0830ET) seen at.....>

US DATA PREVIEW: (1/2) Core CPI (0830ET) seen at -0.2% M/M in BBG median (Low:

-0.5% - Hi: +0.1%). Some sell-side notes (their expectations in brackets):

- NatWest (core: -0.215%): "our core CPI forecast would be the largest monthly

drop in almost four decades... airfares, lodging away from home, transportation

services, costs of recreation, personal care, used cars, new cars and apparel

(which together account for 20% of the core CPI) could have shaved 0.3% from the

core CPI print in April."

- TD (core: -0.2%): "Among core components, the most dramatic weakness will

probably be in the travel-related parts. We also expect a decline in apparel

prices and some slowing in rents."

- Citi (core: -0.098%): "Although historically unusual, we do not expect any

significant market reaction to falling core prices for a second month in a row.

The greater surprise could be in the event of a stronger-than-expected print for

core CPI, although we do not see any implications for near-term monetary policy.

Market participants are also likely to be well-aware of data collection and

estimation issues and could be more dismissive of any abnormal reading.