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ECB VIEW: ###(1/2) MAJORITY OF BANKS DO NOT SEE CHANGES TO QE ANNOUNCED IN JUNE:

- Morgan Stanley: On balance expect ECB to announce changes to its forward

guidance next month and deliver a "relatively cautious press conference with the

central bank on high alert". See QE tapered to end of 2018, but risk extended

- GS: Rates unchanged and expect no concrete announcements regarding APP. Expect

Draghi to indicate changes to APP & forward guidance are likely to come in Jul

(poss even Sep) and keep steady hand approach. See QE tapered to end of 2018 and

1st rate hike in 2nd half of 2019 (ie October)

- BNP: Now think details of QE announcement more likely in June than July.

Central case is for QE to end in Dec after short taper in Q4. ECB likely to keep

language cautious and dovish and using forward guidance to keep rate

expectations in check. See first hike in Mid-2019 and deposit rate at zero at

end of 2019.

- Nomura: Very close call, but not expecting a concrete announcement on strategy

this month, more likely in July. See QE cut to E20bln in Oct, E10bln in Nov and

end in Dec & 1st rate hike in Sep-2019. See very modest changes to growth/CPI.