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$1.2180/1.2200 Provides Next Upside Hurdle

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Reported support area into $1.2100 cushioned Tuesday's downside pressure (low $1.2108, $1.2106 61.8% $1.2054-1.2190) before rate rallied back through the NY open to $1.2176.
  • Rate dropped back to $1.2140 through the 1600GMT fix, recovered to $1.2168 before closing at $1.2159.
  • Risk perception remains the key driver of direction, the USD Tuesday giving back Monday gains as risk outlook turned positive.
  • Demand into Tokyo saw rate edge to $1.2170 before mild USD demand emerged to press rate back to $1.2153 before meeting stronger demand. Rate has edged back to $1.2166 into the European open.
  • Resistance now seen at $1.2176/80, interest then said to extend on to $1.2200($1.2190 Jan22 high, $1.2202 50% 1.2349-1.2054) a break of $1.2210 to expose $1.2223/30($1.2336 61.8%).
  • Support into $1.2150, with $1.2135/25 protecting against a retest of the support area into $1.2100.
  • A light EZ data calendar, France Consumer Confidence at 0745GMT, with ECB Lane speaking at 1500GMT.
  • US Durable Goods at 1330GMT with main focus on FOMC at 1900GMT.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD is unchanged and remains below recent highs. Last week's gains are likely a pause in the current bearish cycle and further short-term weakness is likely. Recent sell-off from 1.2349, Jan 6 high marks the start of a correction and attention is on 1.2054, Jan 8 low. A break would open 1.2011, Sep 1 high and 1.1976, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of 1.2190, Jan 22 high would expose 1.2230 instead, Jan 11 high.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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