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$1.2240/50 Remains Upside Hurdle

EUR
MNI (London)
  • EUR USD recovery off Friday's low of $1.2161 extended to $1.2230 in early NY trade Monday. Rate reversed to $1.2205 through the 1600BST fix before settling around $1.2217 into the close.
  • Fresh risk appetite was cited for the recovery move, though no stand out catalyst seen to prompt it.
  • Asia kept the USD under pressure (albeit mild), allowed rate to post a high of $1.2231, retaining this strength ahead of the European open.
  • Resistance remains at $1.2240/50, a break to expose $1.2280/85.
  • Support $1.2210/00 ahead of $1.2195/85, $1.2175/70 head of stronger interest between $1.2160/50.
  • Option expiries of note for today's NY cut include, $1.2215-25(E629mln-EUR puts), $1.2260-75(E1.2bln-EUR puts), $1.2325-45(E679mln-EUR puts)
  • Germany GDP 0600GMT, Germany Ifo 0800GMT (median business climate 98.0, Current Assessment 95.5, Expectations 101) .
  • ECB Villeroy (no known bias) 1300GMT, Lane (dove) 1400GMT.
  • Fed Evans (dove) 1140GMT, Fed Barkin (no known bias) 1200GMT. US House prices, Case-Schiller 1300GMT, New Home Sales, Richmond Fed, Consumer Confidence 1400GMT. Fed Quarles (no known bias) 1400GMT.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD has started the week on a firmer note and is approaching resistance at 1.2245, May 19 high. The outlook remains bullish following last week's gains. Clearance of 1.2245 would confirm a resumption of strength and open 1.2285, Jan 8 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 1.2052, May 13 low while initial support is at 1.2126, the May 17 low. A break of 1.2052 would signal a top.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com

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