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(1/3) The May Consumer Price........>

US DATA PREVIEW
US DATA PREVIEW: (1/3) The May Consumer Price Index to be released on Wednesday
(0830ET) is expected to rise by 0.1% based on both the Bloomberg consensus and
the median forecast in an MNI survey of analysts. Core CPI is expected to rise
0.2% due to a modest rebound in apparel prices after two declines. In a nutshell
(please contact us if you want to see our full Data Team analysis):
- Analysts Tend To Overestimate Headline CPI
- No Clear Bias To Core CPI Estimates
- Apparel Prices Rebound
- Seasonal Factors Restrain Gasoline Prices
- Y/Y Rates Hover Around 2%
** Sell-side previews (con`t in next two bullets):
- Barclays: We forecast May headline CPI to have increased 0.1% m/m and 1.8%
y/y. We expect the annual rate of headline CPI to fall further this year as
energy futures prices have declined recently. But, we maintain our view that
core CPI will remain solid throughout 2019, reaching 2.2% by December.

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