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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
MNI reports that the St. Louis Fed's analysis of high-frequency workforce scheduling data from Homebase predicts 1.5mn new nonfarm payrolls jobs in the June report out next week.
- While such estimates should be taken with great caution, a result of that magnitude would be significantly higher than the +695k currently seen in the BBG survey and the biggest increase since Aug 2020 (+1.583mn). The high estimate in the BBG survey for the June figure is +950k, so a figure of 1mn+ would be a significant upside surprise and would reinforce the hawkish narrative since the June FOMC.
- Such a big reversal from the disappointing jobs figures in the past couple of months would help alleviate doubts about the heretofore weak labor market recovery, which is probably the biggest single obstacle to getting more FOMC members on board with a 2022 rate hike.
Chg in nonfarm payrolls '000s and St Louis Fed forecast. Source: BLS, St Louis Fed, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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