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1 Month Off Earlier Highs, As Equities Recover, BoK Not Discussing Easing Yet

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1 month USD/KRW sits away from session highs, the pair last near 1361, up around 0.25% in won terms versus end NY levels from Wednesday. Earlier we got to 1365.30. We remain comfortably within recent ranges for now. Current 1 month NDF levels are just under the 20-day EMA, while the 50-day is back near 1356.6.

  • The Kospi has ticked up from earlier weakness to be marginally higher for the session. This is outperformer weaker trends seen in HK/China markets so far today.
  • A chip support package announced by the government worth $19bn (reportedly a record amount, see this BBG link) has likely aided the local equity recovery and seen some modest positive spillover to the won.
  • The BoK outcome lent hawkishly but is unlikely to surprised the market. We saw one member in favor of rate cuts in the next 3 months, but the other 5 board members favored steady rates (at 3.50%) for the next 3 months.
  • BoK Governor Rhee stated it was unclear when the central bank would start discussing rate cuts. Hence it seems unlikely a consensus will be achieved policy in the next few months. Equally Rhee noted a rate hike was unlikely at the current juncture.
  • Looking ahead the data calendar is fairly light for South Korea, with retail sales figures due next week.
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1 month USD/KRW sits away from session highs, the pair last near 1361, up around 0.25% in won terms versus end NY levels from Wednesday. Earlier we got to 1365.30. We remain comfortably within recent ranges for now. Current 1 month NDF levels are just under the 20-day EMA, while the 50-day is back near 1356.6.

  • The Kospi has ticked up from earlier weakness to be marginally higher for the session. This is outperformer weaker trends seen in HK/China markets so far today.
  • A chip support package announced by the government worth $19bn (reportedly a record amount, see this BBG link) has likely aided the local equity recovery and seen some modest positive spillover to the won.
  • The BoK outcome lent hawkishly but is unlikely to surprised the market. We saw one member in favor of rate cuts in the next 3 months, but the other 5 board members favored steady rates (at 3.50%) for the next 3 months.
  • BoK Governor Rhee stated it was unclear when the central bank would start discussing rate cuts. Hence it seems unlikely a consensus will be achieved policy in the next few months. Equally Rhee noted a rate hike was unlikely at the current juncture.
  • Looking ahead the data calendar is fairly light for South Korea, with retail sales figures due next week.