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1 Month USD/IDR Breaks Above 15800, Amid Broad EM FX Weakness

IDR

The 1-month USD/IDR NDF broke higher post the Asia close on Wednesday. We got above 15800, before finding some resistance in NY trade around the 15820 level. We closed at 15814, an IDR loss of 0.48%. This is fresh highs in the pair back to early November last year. Note onshore spot closed yesterday at 15730, so the early bias may to be the upside.

  • For the 1-month NDF a continued move higher may see late April 2020 levels near 15910 targeted.
  • IDR wasn't along in weakening against the USD, with broader EM FX under pressure. In particular, the Mexican peso declined 1.3% with the likes of PLN and ZAR also declining 1%.
  • Risk off in the equity space, coupled with US real yields returning to recent cyclical highs (10yr back to 2.47%) weighed on sentiment.
  • For IDR, the focus will rest on today's BI decision, no change is expected (our preview is here). BI's response to this fresh round of rupiah weakness will also be eyed.
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