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1 Month USD/KRW Close To March Highs, Will Official Rhetoric Rise On A Move Above 1340?

KRW

1 month USD/KRW spent most of the post Asia close on the front foot. We ended the NY session near 1334.7, a won loss of 0.45%, which was the 5th straight decline. The won underperformed BBDXY gains, which were a more modest 0.18% for Monday's session. Note onshore spot ended at 1333.7 yesterday.

  • The 1 month USD/KRW NDF stopped short of reaching fresh highs for March, albeit just. These highs come in just above 1335. Beyond that lies the Feb 13 high of 1341.79. Moves above 1340 have had no follow through this year, with official rhetoric around FX weakness also stepping up on some of these prior breaks.
  • Focus could return to this region given the tendency for negative seasonality for the won in April amid dividend outflow pressures (Spot KRW has lost on average 1.05% in the last 5 April's).
  • In the cross asset space on Monday, we had mixed tech related equity trends, the SOX flat, but the MSCI IT rose 0.61%. Broader equity sentiment was positive in US markets, but didn't aid the won a great deal. Firmer US yields, including fresh YTD highs for some parts of the curve, supported broader USD sentiment.
  • Onshore equities closed higher yesterday (Kospi + 0.71%), while offshore investors added $77.4mn to local shares.
  • The data calendar is quiet today. The authorities are taking additional steps to curb food inflation (see this BBG link).

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