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1 Month USD/KRW NDF Firms Amid CNH, JPY Falls, Equity Weakness

KRW

1 month USD/KRW spent most of the post Asia close tracking higher on Wednesday. We got back close to 1376 by late in US trade, against earlier lows near 1365. Note onshore spot finished yesterday at 1369.40.

  • The won was weighed by a weaker equity backdrop through EU trade, while US equities finished close to flat. We have US equity futures down sharply in early Thursday trade, Nasdaq futures off more than 1%, amid disappointment around the Meta earnings outlook.
  • This could be a weight in regional Asia Pac trade today. To recap, the Kospi finished +2% higher yesterday, while offshore investors added $488mn to local shares.
  • Weakness in yen, with USD/JPY above 155.00, while USD/CNH rose through 7.2700, were also likely won headwinds.
  • For 1 month USD/KRW NDF, yesterday's pullback got close to the 20-day EMA, which is now near 1366. April 19 highs came in near 1391 for the pair.
  • On the data front, we have already had May business sentiment readings, with manufacturing edging up to 74 from 73, while non-manufacturing improved to 71 from 69.
  • Q1 GDP figures are due soon, the market looks for 0.6% q/q growth, unchanged from Q4, the y/y print is projected at 2.5% (prior 2.2%).
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