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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
KRW
1 month USD/KRW hit fresh highs in Monday US trade, the pair getting to ~1389 before easing moderately into the close (1386.4). The 1 month NDF lost 0.56% for Monday's session, amid broad USD gains, as US yields rebounded post stronger than expected US retail sales data. Onshore spot ended yesterday at 1384.05.
- Focus is likely to rest on risks around verbal jaw boning or actual intervention from the authorities. The BoK noted at the end of last week it was prepared to curb excessive volatility, while comments also came out yesterday morning in the aftermath of Iran's missile/drone attack on Israel.
- The market could test the authorities resolve further. 1400 seems the next upside target for 1 month NDF, levels last seen in Nov 2022. The 20-day EMA sits back near 1356 and continues to trend higher. We are in overbought territory per the RSI (14), see the chart below, albeit with broader won headwinds still present.
- The lead for the Kospi is negative today. The SOX fell 1.39% in Monday trade, the MSCI IT fell 1.88%, amid broad US equity losses. The US real 10yr yield climbed 9bps to 2.20%. Offshore investors sold $221.1mn of local Korean shares yesterday.
- On the data front, Mar trade prices have already printed. Import prices were -0.7% y/y. export prices +2.6% y/y. Later on, we have Feb money supply figures. The data calendar is then empty until early next week (first 20days trade data due).
- The FinMin of South Korea, Japan and the US will reportedly meet on Wednesday (see this BBG link).
Fig 1: USD/KRW 1 Month In Overbought Territory
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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