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1 Month USD/KRW Right On 100-day EMA Support, Equity Strength Aids The Won

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1 month USD/KRW was lower post the Asia close on Thursday, the pair getting sub 1322 before some support kicked in. Earlier highs in the pair were at 1330. The 1 month NDF was 0.45% higher for the session. Note onshore spot ended yesterday at 1330.9.

  • 1 month USD/KRW is now sub the 50-day EMA (1325.8), the 100-day is very close to end Thursday levels in NY (just above 1322). The 20-day sits higher, near 1329, see the chart below.
  • Won sentiment had twin supports from lower US yields and the better global equity tone. The SPX hit a record high, but tech related indices also outperformed. The SOX surged a further 3.36%, while the MSCI IT index gained 1.81%.
  • To recap, the Kospi rose a modest 0.23% yesterday, while offshore investors sold -$394.4mn.
  • Earlier we had data on the Jan goods balance and current account. The goods balance surplus fell to $4240.4mn, from just over $8000mn. The current account printed at $3045.7mn, versus $7414.6mn prior. The current account surplus is still well above the deficit trough point from early 2023.
  • The data calendar is fairly light until the second half of next week, when the unemployment rate is due for Fe, along with trade prices.

Fig 1: USD/KRW 1 Month Versus Key EMAs

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1 month USD/KRW was lower post the Asia close on Thursday, the pair getting sub 1322 before some support kicked in. Earlier highs in the pair were at 1330. The 1 month NDF was 0.45% higher for the session. Note onshore spot ended yesterday at 1330.9.

  • 1 month USD/KRW is now sub the 50-day EMA (1325.8), the 100-day is very close to end Thursday levels in NY (just above 1322). The 20-day sits higher, near 1329, see the chart below.
  • Won sentiment had twin supports from lower US yields and the better global equity tone. The SPX hit a record high, but tech related indices also outperformed. The SOX surged a further 3.36%, while the MSCI IT index gained 1.81%.
  • To recap, the Kospi rose a modest 0.23% yesterday, while offshore investors sold -$394.4mn.
  • Earlier we had data on the Jan goods balance and current account. The goods balance surplus fell to $4240.4mn, from just over $8000mn. The current account printed at $3045.7mn, versus $7414.6mn prior. The current account surplus is still well above the deficit trough point from early 2023.
  • The data calendar is fairly light until the second half of next week, when the unemployment rate is due for Fe, along with trade prices.

Fig 1: USD/KRW 1 Month Versus Key EMAs

Keep reading...Show less