FREELAND: CANADA WON'T ESCALATE OR BACK DOWN ON US TRADE FIGHT

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 8/13/28/50-Week BTF Auction on Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.125% Jul-29 Gilt Due on Tuesday

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

10-Yr Auction Preview: Caught Between Two Data Extremes

US TSYS/SUPPLY

An interesting backdrop for the first 10-Yr auction of the quarter's refunding schedule ($41B on offer) - with the past week seeing the biggest-ever downside miss to payrolls data followed by the biggest-ever upside miss to inflation.

  • The latter of course has provided a pretty decent concession going into the auction, with the 10-Yr yield rising from just around 1.61% at 0815ET this morning pre-data, to above 1.68% two-and-a-half hours later post-CPI.
  • That puts it toward the higher end of recent ranges: the post-payrolls knee-jerk low was 1.4643%. 1.686% was the recent April 29 high; 1.7742% the March 30 post-pandemic high.
  • The last two auctions saw modest tails (see table below).
  • BMO points out that May carries positive seasonal factors, w 9 of the past 16 May 10-Yr auctions stopping through, 1 on the screws, and 6 tailing.
High yieldWhen-issued yieldTrade through (tail)High - Median SpreadBid-to-coverPrimary Dealer PercentIndirect PercentDirect PercentOffering Amount ($bn)
5 auction average1.295%1.294%0.05.12.3822.60%60.29%17.07%38.6
12-Apr-211.680%1.677%-0.36.02.3624.17%59.58%16.21%38
10-Mar-211.523%1.520%-0.35.62.3825.39%56.76%17.76%38
10-Feb-211.155%1.156%0.15.02.3720.46%60.58%18.91%41
12-Jan-211.164%1.172%0.84.42.4719.98%62.23%17.76%38
09-Dec-200.951%0.947%-0.44.72.3322.99%62.30%14.70%38
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.