10s Widen Vs. Tsys; Data, Supply & Sino-Aussie Relations Eyed

10s have underperformed the overnight richening seen in U.S. Tsys, with the AU/U.S. 10-Year yield spread widening out to ~10bp. The futures space has seen some light twist flattening, with YM -0.5 and XM +0.5, although the latter is struggling to regain the 99.00 level (1.00% in implied yield terms) on a sustained basis.

• A reminder that a recently released MNI exclusive saw three Chinese policy advisors note that China is likely to impose additional restrictions on Australian agricultural products. The advisors suggested that that the targeting of Australian products could include informal measures such as expensive customs delays, pointing to farm products in particular, due to the ease with which they can be sourced elsewhere. But Australian iron ore, vital for Chinese industry and difficult to substitute with alternative supplies, is not likely to be targeted, the advisors said.
• Focus today moves to local retail sales data, A$1.5bn worth of ACGB 0.25% 21 November 2025 supply and the release of the AOFM weekly issuance schedule.