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10Y Breakeven Relatively Steady As Real Yields Drive Adjustment

US TSYS
  • The largest action has clearly been at the front-end of the curve but further out, it’s still notable that 8bps of the 10bp rise in the nominal 10Y yield has come from tighter real yields.
  • 10Y real yields of 35bps have dipped from earlier cycle highs of 37bps whilst the 10Y breakeven has been well restrained considering the inflation beat, rising 2bps to 2.8%.
  • It sees the breakeven up from late May lows of 2.555% but off highs of 3.08% (Apr 22) and at the post-Ukraine war average of 2.80%.
  • It comes on the same day that the U.Mich survey of long-term consumer inflation expectations surprisingly popped 30bps higher to 3.3%, the highest since 2008 and prior to that 1994.

10Y nominal yield (white), real yield (green) and breakeven (yellow)Source: Bloomberg

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