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10Y Real Yields Back Near Post-Payrolls Highs

US TSYS
  • Today’s long-end sell-off has been fuelled by a combination of higher real yields and less so a bounce in breakevens.
  • 10Y real yields of 37bps (+3bps on the day, +7bp intraday swing) are almost back to post-payrolls highs at levels last seen prior to the post-Jul FOMC range.
  • This is a continuation of the stepwise re-adjustment higher in real yields from close to 0bps prior to SF Fed’s Daly kickstarting a slew of Fedspeak on Aug 2 by saying the Fed was nowhere near done in its battle with inflation, a message continued after yesterday’s CPI miss.
  • The 10Y breakeven has nudged back to 2.46% and is almost back to its pre-CPI level prior to which it largely tracked sideways over that same early Aug period. It’s off July lows of circa 2.3% but remains below pre-Fed taper levels.

10Y real yields (green) and breakeven (yellow) in historical perspectiveSource: Bloomberg

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