MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP Weakness Seen as Corrective

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – GBP Weakness Seen as Corrective, For Now

• S&P E-Minis traded lower last week and the move down resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This reinforces a short-term bearish cycle and signals scope for an extension near-term. Note that the move down is considered corrective. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower Thursday, reinforcing current bearish conditions. The contract has breached 4846.00, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this level would pave the way for an extension towards 4727.57, the 200 day MA on the continuation chart.
• GBPUSD is trading just above last week’s lows. Last Thursday’s bearish extension resulted in a print below 1.2864, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would open 1.2784, the 50-day EMA. The move down appears to be a correction - for now. A sharp sell-off last week in USDJPY reinforces the current bearish cycle and the pair is trading just above its recent lows. The move down signals scope for an extension towards 151.10, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note too that the 200-dma lies at 151.57. The recent impulsive rally in USDCAD has resulted in a break of 1.3792, the Jun 11 high, and a print above key resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.
• Gold continues to trade below its recent highs. The latest move down is considered corrective, however, the yellow metal has pierced support at the 50-day EMA - at $2361.1. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The recent move lower in WTI futures signals scope for an extension near-term. The contract has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, reinforcing a short-term bearish threat. A resumption of the bear leg would open $72.23, the Jun 4 low and the next key support.
• A bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract is holding on to its recent highs. Support around the 50-day EMA, remains intact and 132.51, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 3 bear leg, has been breached. Gilt futures continue to trade below resistance at 98.93, the Jul 18 high. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards 96.57, the Jul 1 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Phase Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1055 1.236 projection of the Apr 16 - Jun 4 - 26 price swing   
• RES 3: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.0964 High Mar 13
• RES 1: 1.0897/0948 High Jul 23 / 17 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.0859 @ 05:54 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 1.0826 Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: 1.0818 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.0774 61.8% retracement of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 bull phase 
• SUP 4: 1.0733 76.4% retracement of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 bull phase

EURUSD is in consolidation mode and is trading closer to its recent lows. A corrective bear cycle remains in play. The 20-day EMA has been cleared and this has exposed the 50-day EMA, at 1.0818. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher would highlight the end of the corrective cycle and open the key resistance at 1.0948, the Jul 17 high.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Retracement Mode

• RES 4: 1.3193 2.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing     
• RES 3: 1.3142 High Jul 14 ‘23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3107 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low
• RES 1: 1.2938/3044 High Jul 24 / 17 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.2875 @ 06:09 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 1.2850 Low Jul 25 / 26  
• SUP 2: 1.2784 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2741 Low Jul 4 
• SUP 4: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support  

GBPUSD is trading just above last week’s lows. Last Thursday’s bearish extension resulted in a print below 1.2864, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would open 1.2784, the 50-day EMA. The move down appears to be a correction - for now. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3044, the Jul 17 high.       

EURGBP TECHS: Watching Resistance At the 50-Day EMA                            

• RES 4: 0.499 High Jul 1 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 0.8478 High Jul 5
• RES 2: 0.8463 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 0.8449 High Jul 26
• PRICE: 0.8435 @ 06:42 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 0.8393/83 Low Jul 25 / 17 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.8332 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8279 3.00 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing

Despite the strong bounce last Thursday in EURGBP, a bearish theme remains intact. Recent weakness resulted in a print below key support at 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this price level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend and open 0.8366, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA has been breached, the next firm resistance is seen at 0.8463, the 50-day EMA.    

USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Trend Needle Points South  

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12    
• RES 3: 157.86 High Jul 19  
• RES 2: 157.31 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 155.99 High Jul 24 
• PRICE: 153.55 @ 06:23 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 151.94 Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: 151.57 200-dma
• SUP 3: 151.10 50% retracement of the Dec 28 ‘23 - Jul 3 upleg
• SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5

A sharp sell-off last week in USDJPY reinforces the current bearish cycle and the pair is trading just above its recent lows. The move down signals scope for an extension towards 151.10, a Fibonacci retracement point. Note too that the 200-dma lies at 151.57. Clearance of both price points would reinforce the current bearish. On the upside, key short-term resistance is 157.31, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average would signal a potential reversal.  

EURJPY TECHS: Impulsive Bear Wave 

• RES 4: 172.92 High Jul 16  
• RES 3: 171.88 High Jul 19   
• RES 2: 170.17 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 169.20 High Jul 24 
• PRICE: 166.73 @ 06:51 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 164.83 Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: 164.33 50% retracement of the Dec 7 ‘23 - Jul 11 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 164.02 Low May 3
• SUP 4: 163.02 Low Apr 19

The sharp sell-off in EURJPY last week reinforces the current bearish theme. The move down since Jul 11 has resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from Dec 7 low last year, and a break of the 50-day EMA. This paves the way for an extension towards 164.33 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a key short-term resistance is seen at 170.17, the 50-day EMA. Initial resistance is 169.20, the Jul 24 high. 

AUDUSD TECHS: Impulsive Wave Likely To Extend 

• RES 4: 0.6702 High Jul 22     
• RES 3: 0.6653 50-day EMA                
• RES 2: 0.6620 Low Jun 28 
• RES 1: 0.6583 High Jul 25  
• PRICE: 0.6555 @ 07:57 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 0.6515 Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: 0.6466 76.4% retracement of the Apr 19 - Jul 11 bull phase   
• SUP 3: 0.6441 Low Apr 23  
• SUP 4: 0.6407 Low Apr 22 

A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD last week reinforces a bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation. The move down has resulted in a break of support at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. A resumption of the bear leg would pave the way for a move towards 0.6466, a Fibonacci retracement point. From a near-term perspective, the pair is oversold. A recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 0.6653, the 50-day EMA.   

USDCAD TECHS: Pierces Key Resistance 

• RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3886 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3855 High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3849 High Jul 25 / 26
• PRICE: 1.3825 @ 08:03 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 1.3778 Low Jul 24   
• SUP 2: 1.3727 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3696 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3367 Low Jul 17 

The recent impulsive rally in USDCAD has resulted in a break of 1.3792, the Jun 11 high, and a print above key resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high. Conditions are overbought, however, a clear break of 1.3846 would strengthen the bull theme and pave the way for a continuation higher, towards 1.3899, the Nov 1 high ‘23 and a key resistance. Firm support lies at 1.3696, the 50-day EMA.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 134.00 Round number resistance            
• RES 3: 133.42 1.764 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing
• RES 2: 133.21 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 132.92 High Jul 25                     
• PRICE: 132.77 @ 05:32 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 131.83/62 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22           
• SUP 2: 130.95/23 Low Jul 10 / 3 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 129.52 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger 

A bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract is holding on to its recent highs. Support around the 50-day EMA, remains intact and 132.51, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 3 bear leg, has been breached. A continuation higher would open 133.21, the Jun 14 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 130.23, the Jul 3 low. First support is 131.83, the 50-day EMA.   

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Tests Key Short-Term Resistance                                          

• RES 4: 117.844 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 117.640 2.236 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing   
• RES 2: 117.380 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing   
• RES 1: 117.160 High Jun 14 / Jul 25 and the bull trigger               
• PRICE: 117.040 @ 05.44 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 116.574 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 116.320 Low Jul 22   
• SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11 
• SUP 4: 115.530 Low Jul and the key short-term support

Bobl futures traded higher last Thursday, rallying to touch a new monthly high at 117.160. This also resulted in a test of key resistance at the Jun 14 high.  A medium-term bull cycle remains in play and a clear breach of 117.160 would reinforce current conditions. This would open 117.380, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on 115.530, Jul 5 low and a key support. Initial firm support to watch lies at 116.574, 20-day EMA.             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Continues To Point North 

• RES 4: 106.070 High Feb 2 (cont) 
• RES 3: 106.050 2.50 projection of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing  
• RES 2: 106.009 2.382 projection of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing 
• RES 1: 106.005 High Jul 25  
• PRICE: 105.920 @ 05:59 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 105.729 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 105.630 Low Jul 22  
• SUP 3: 105.495/390 Low Jul 11 / 5 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 105.310 Low Jun 12  

Schatz futures traded a fresh short-term cycle high last Thursday. The contract has pierced resistance at 105.975, the Jun 14 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started on May 24. Sights are on 106.009, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 105.729, the 20-day EMA, and 105.630, the Jul 22 low. A clear break of these two levels would be seen as a bearish development.                       

GILT TECHS: (U4) Resistance Remains Intact For Now                                        

• RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number  
• RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 99.23 High Jun 21 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 98.46/93 High Jul 26 / 16 
• PRICE: 98.23 @ Close Jul 26 
• SUP 1: 97.46 Low Jul 22       
• SUP 2: 96.96 Low Jul 3      
• SUP 3: 96.57 Low Jul 1 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 96.25 76.4% retracement of the May 29 - Jun 21 bull run  

Gilt futures continue to trade below resistance at 98.93, the Jul 18 high. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards 96.57, the Jul 1 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. For bulls, Friday’s strong bounce is a positive development. A move through 98.93, and 99.23, the Jun 21 high, would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29. 

BTP TECHS: (U4) Trend Structure Remains Bullish 

• RES 4: 120.20 2.00 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 119.55 1.764 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 118.73 High May 17 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: 118.07 @ Close Jul 26
• SUP 1: 117.50/12  20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: 116.07 Low Jul 8 
• SUP 3: 114.72 Low Jul 2 
• SUP 4: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support 

BTP futures traded lower last week but the contract has recovered from Friday’s low. The medium-term trend remains positive following recent strong gains. A resumption of the bull cycle would open the 119.00 handle next ahead of 119.55, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at 117.50, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 117.12. The latest pullback is considered corrective and this is allowing an overbought condition to unwind.                         

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Corrective Bounce    

• RES 4: 5087.00 High Jul 12 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 5012.00 High Jul 16        
• RES 2: 4969.51/4980.00 50-day EMA 5132.00 / High Jul 23 
• RES 1: 4927.00High Jul 24    
• PRICE: 4913.00 @ 06:21 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 4793.00 Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: 4762.00 Low Apr 19 (cont)
• SUP 3: 4727.57 200-dma (cont)
• SUP 4: 4679.00 1.50 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded lower Thursday, reinforcing current bearish conditions. The contract has breached 4846.00, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this level would pave the way for an extension towards 4727.57, the 200 day MA on the continuation chart. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a downtrend. The latest bounce appears to be a correction - for now. Initial firm resistance to watch is 4980.00, Jul 23 high.           

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Bearish Cycle 

• RES 4: 5741.34 3.382 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 5629.75 High Jul 23  
• RES 1: 5563.31 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 5424.50 @ 07:17 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 5432.50 Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: 5413.55 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 5370.62 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 bull leg  
• SUP 4: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support

S&P E-Minis traded lower last week and the move down resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This reinforces a short-term bearish cycle and signals scope for an extension near-term. Note that the move down is considered corrective. Potential is seen for a move towards 5413.55, the lower band of a MA envelope, ahead of 5370.62 a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance is 5629.75, the Jul 23 high.  

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U4) Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $91.99 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing 
• RES 3: $90.23 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $89.32 - High Jul 18 / Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $85.81/87.95 - High Jul 18 / 5    
• PRICE: $81.65 @ 07:00 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: $79.32 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 4 - Jul 5 bull leg
• SUP 2: $76.66 - Low Jun 4 and a key support 
• SUP 3: $75.31 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.37 - Low Dec 13 2023

A bear cycle in Brent futures remains in play for now. The recent breach of the 20- and 50 EMAs continues to suggest scope for an extension lower near-term. A resumption of the bear leg would open $79.32, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at $76.66, the Jun 4 low. The medium-term trend remains bullish. A reversal higher would refocus attention on $87.95, the Jul 5 high and a key resistance.  

WTI TECHS: (U4) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat For Now

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.43 - 1.00 proj of the Dec 13 ‘23 - Apr 12 - Jun 4 swing 
• RES 2: $84.36 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $79.14/83.58 - 20-day EMA / High Jul 5   
• PRICE: $77.57 @ 07:08 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: $76.04 - Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: $72.23 - Low Jun 4 and a key support 
• SUP 3: $70.73 - Low Feb 5 
• SUP 4: $69.16 - Low Dec 13 2023

The recent move lower in WTI futures signals scope for an extension near-term. The contract has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, reinforcing a short-term bearish threat. A resumption of the bear leg would open $72.23, the Jun 4 low and the next key support. For bulls, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on the key resistance points at $83.58, the Jul 5 high, and $84.36, the Apr 12 high.  

GOLD TECHS: Tests Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing   
• RES 3: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2500.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $2432.0/2483.8 - High Jul 24 / 17 and the bull trigger                  
• PRICE: $2394.7 @ 07:14 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: $2353.2 - Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support 
• SUP 4: $2228.6 - Low Apr 1

Gold continues to trade below its recent highs. The latest move down is considered corrective, however, the yellow metal has pierced support at the 50-day EMA - at $2361.1. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $2277.4, the May 3 low and a key support. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, and a bull trigger. A break would resume the primary uptrend.      

SILVER TECHS: Support Has Been Cleared

• RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg        
• RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $29.471/$31.754 - 50-day EMA /  High Jul 11                
• PRICE: $28.008 @ 08:08 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: $27.429 Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: $27.011 Low May 8
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support  
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

A bearish cycle in Silver remains in play. The metal slipped through supports last week, extending the negative response to the recent break of the 50-day EMA at $29.471. Note too that support at $28.573, the Jun 26 low, has been cleared. This paves the way for an extension towards $26.018, the May 2 low and a key support. A reversal would refocus attention on $31.754 initially, the Jul 11 high.