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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA
- We have seen that even though inflationary pressures have continued to intensify in the EM world (Citi EM inflation surprise index standing at its highest level since September 2008), China long-term bond yields have been consolidating lower as the uncertainty over the economic recovery has been rising.
- China 10Y bond yield peaked in November 2020 (3.36%) and has been constantly retracing lower since then as 'liquidity' has been contracting sharply (China TSF 12M Sum yearly change down from over 10tr CNY in October 2020 to 0 in June 2021).
- It is important to also note that the Chinese economic activity seems to have peaked in February according to a range of financial and economic indicators (i.e. Li Keqiang Index).
- China 10Y yield has been retracing lower this week, and is gradually approaching its key support at 2.91%, which corresponds to the 50% retracement of the 2.46% - 3.36% range and the low of its LT downward trending channel.
- A break below that level would open the door for a move down to 2.85%.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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