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10Y Yield Breaks Above 50% Retracement

CZECHIA
  • Volatility on the long end of the curve has been rising in recent weeks amid growing inflation concerns, with CEE central banks now expecting to prolong their tightening cycle to ease the inflationary pressures.
  • CEE policymakers seem to be very sensitive to the high levels of inflation and therefore have not hesitated to surprise markets by raising rates more aggressively even though aggressive hikes tend to weigh on the economic activity.
  • Hence, the rise of the term premium (due to inflation concerns) and the increase in the terminal rate have been pushing Czech LT yields to new highs in the past month.
  • Czech 10Y yield broke above its 2.8170% resistance this week, which corresponds to the 50% retracement of the 0.213% - 5.42% range (last cycle low/high).
  • Next key resistance to watch on the topside stands at 3%.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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