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10Y Yield Breaks Above Its 2% Key Resistance

POLAND
  • Yesterday, NBP member Hardt commented on Twitter that the overshooting inflation is not temporary and requires an MPC response (i.e. rate hike).
  • Three NBP members (Hardt, Gatnar and Zubelewicz) out of eight are currently in favor of a rate hike and strongly believe that the central bank should start to gradually normalize its policy to curb the inflationary pressures.
  • November meeting remains key for policy outlook. The outcome is still binary for now, with traders hesitant if the NBP will start its tightening cycle then, or at a later date.
  • Yesterday, economic data showed that Poland current account deficit came in higher than expected at 1.8bn EUR in July (vs. 0.18bn), up from 0.28bn EUR the previous month.
  • Next important data to watch is core CPI coming out on September 16 (expected to accelerate to 3.9% in August).
  • Poland 10Y yield broke above its 2% key level this morning after testing the resistance for the past few days; next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 2.22% (March 19, 2020 high). On the downside, first support stands at 1.93%, followed by 1.87%.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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