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10Y Yield Jumps Higher Following Hot July CPI Print

CZECHIA
  • Yesterday was marked by the higher-than-expected CPI print, which surged to 3.4% YoY in July (vs. 2.9% exp.), up from 2.8% the previous month.
  • We have seen that the CNB board seems very concerned with inflation and is very likely to deliver a steep hiking cycle, raising rate at each of the last three meetings (which would bring the policy rate up to 1.5% by the end of the year).
  • Czech 10Y yield has rising since yesterday, currently trading slightly below its 1.74% resistance; a break above that level would open the door for a move up to 1.77% (100DMA). On the downside, key support remains at 1.60%.
  • USDCZK has been retracing higher in the past few days after breaking above its 200DMA resistance on Monday; next level to watch on the topside stands at 21.86, followed by 22. On the downside, first support to watch below 21.57 (200DMA) stands at 21.44 (100DMA).
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