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Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
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- Even though inflationary pressures remain elevated in most of the DM and EM economies, with PPI inflation standing at its highest level since July 1995 in China, rising Covid uncertainty keeps pushing LT interest rates lower.
- In recent weeks, a rising number of governments have announced new restrictions/lockdowns in order to avoid the downside risk of another wave of infections.
- With China sticking to ‘Zero-Covid policy’, growth expectations are likely to be revised to the downside again following 8 months of economic slowdown.
- The 10Y yield has been constantly reaching lower highs in the past year, indicating the strength of the bearish LT trend.
- Next support to watch on the downside stands at 2.81%, which represents the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2.4660% - 3.37% range.
- A break below that level would open the door for a move downs to 2.68% (76.4% Fibo and the low of its LT downward trending channel).