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10yr JGB & Swap Rate Threatening Break Sub 200-day MA

JGBS

JGB futures sit at session highs at the lunch time break. JBH4 is at 146.98, +.79 on volumes of just over 26k. These levels are fresh highs for the active contract back to late July

  • Some support has been evident from a slightly firmer US Tsy tone, TYH4 last 112-15. +01, albeit down from session highs. Markets are continuing to digest yesterday's dovish BoJ hold, which is another likely driver.
  • In the cash JGB space, the 10yr yield sits near 0.58% (-5.5bps), a touch above session lows (just under 0.569%). This keeps us close to the simple 200-day MA (0.572%), but unable to break convincingly through the level.
  • Yield losses are slightly largely for 20-40yr tenors, between 6-7bps.
  • 10yr swap is back to 0.77%, down -2.6bps. This is fresh lows back to the first half of August, and also very close to the simple 200-day MA
  • Coming up we have the liquidity enhancement auction.
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