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10YY Breached 3% Briefly

US TSYS

London and Asia extended spring holiday weekend, exacerbated already thin markets Monday with accts sidelined ahead Wed's FOMC policy annc. TYM2 neared key resistance of 118-02.5 in the second half.

  • Notably, 10YY breached of 3.0% to 3.0003% briefly - the highest level since Dec 2018), rebounded after the bell (TYM2 at 118-12.5) as did equities: SPX emini Jun'22 futures at 4145.0 +17.5 vs. 4056.25 second half low.
  • May’s FOMC decision will be the most hawkish in recent memory, with a 50bp hike and the launch of balance sheet reduction. However, already aggressive market hike pricing limits the potential hawkish impact. Focus will be on the FOMC’s openness to 75bp hikes and/or moving above “neutral”, and any hint of asset sales.
  • That said, lead quarterly Eurodollar futures finished near session highs (ESM2 at 98.105 +0.030, EDU2 +0.010 at 97.25).
  • Tuesday data kicks off at 1000ET: Factory Orders (-0.5%, 1.2%); ex-trans (0.4%, --); Durable Goods Orders (0.8%, 0.8%); ex-trans (1.1%, 1.1%); Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (1.0%, 1.0%); ship (0.2%, --) and JOLTS Job Openings (11.266M, 11.200M).
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