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10YY Fails To Clear 3.75% as Real Yields and Inflation Breakevens Ebb

US TSYS
  • Today’s inability to hold clearance of 3.75% for 10Y yields (currently 3.715%, -2bp), a level last sustainably seen at the turn of the year, has come with both a mild rolling over in real yields and the inflation breakeven.
  • Higher real yields have driven the ~35bp increase in 10Y nominal yields since the payrolls beat on Feb 3 but the inflation breakeven has also drifted to what is currently 7bp higher over the period at 2.32%.
  • The latter is however down from last week’s high of 2.37%, a level last seen in early December, as surging real yields with the Fed looking to take rates to a sufficiently restrictive levels have begun to bite.


US 10Y (white) and breakeven (yellow)Source: Bloomberg

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