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18.00 Capping USDMXN Topside For Now, Inflation Data Eyed

MEXICO
  • Amid the broad greenback strength, USDMXN is holding on to its recent gains and the recovery from 17.4207, appears set to extend. Price is through the 20-day EMA and short-term attention is on both the 18.00 handle and the 50-day EMA at 18.0268.
  • A clear break of this average would strengthen short term bullish conditions, potentially targeting a move to resistance at 18.4011, the Apr 5 high.
  • However, the primary trend direction remains down and for now, the move higher is considered technically corrective, and the bear trigger remains at 17.4207, the May 15 low.
  • Domestic focus is on tomorrow’s mid-month inflation data for confirmation of the current process of disinflation. Headline CPI for mid-May is expected to fall to 6.12% from 6.27% prior and the core reading is expected to dip to 7.49% Y/y.
  • Trade Balance and Current Account balance data are expected on Thursday before Friday’s March economic activity and final reads for Q1 GDP.
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