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Free Access1Q24 Price Forecast at 3.25$/mmbtu but Risk of Revision Lower: JPM
A 1Q24 price forecast of 3.25$/mmbtu is proving to be too optimistic with clear risk of a revision lower according to a note from JP Morgan but the forecast currently remains unchanged amid uncertainty regarding 1Q24 weather.
- The trajectory for end of winter storage suggests above 2.1tcf while end of October 2024 could be about 4.13tcf.
- Upward price pressure is still expected into 2025 despite downwards pressure from the current weather and production as well as due to positioning changes.
- An LNG time line delay for Golden Pass appears to have added to downside pressure to 2025. The forecast for feedgas flows to Golden Pass have been pushed back to 4Q24.
- The start of Plaquemines natural gas facility would drive a tight market by adding 3.2bcf/d additional demand during 2024 and 2025 compared to Haynesville production growth of 1.4Bcf/day from Dec 23 to Dec 25.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.