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1y1y Offers A Play On A Dovish Shift From The RBA

AUSSIE SWAPS

With terminal rate pricing pushing substantially higher since the RBA’s hawkish shift at the February policy meeting, notwithstanding the more recent move from 4.35% to 4.14%, it is not surprising that the 3/10 cash curve has flattened.


Fig. 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Terminal Rate Pricing

Source: Bloomberg / MNI - Market News


  • What is somewhat surprising is that the push higher in terminal rate expectations has been accompanied by a steepening of the 1-year swap Vs. 1-year swap rate 1 year forward (1y1y) and a flattening in the 1y1y Vs. 1-year swap rate 2 years forward (2y1y). Typically, the 1y Vs. 1y1y flattens into the last rate hike of the cycle, particularly when supported by softer data.

Figure 2: 1y Vs. 1y1y & 1y1y Vs. 2y1y

Source: Bloomberg / MNI - Market News


  • Given the weakness of recent data prints, namely Q4 WPI, Q4 GDP and January Monthly CPI, one might have expected the market to push back against the RBA’s recent hawkishness with a flattening of the 1y Vs. 1y1y. The fact it hasn’t suggests a high degree of uncertainty in the market and a willingness to be dragged along by RBA speak.
  • A 1y Vs. 1y1y flattener would therefore appear to offer a good risk-return play on the RBA pivoting towards a less hawkish stance today.
  • As a reference, the last time terminal rate expectations reversed sharply lower after a 20bp+ steepening of the 1y Vs. 1y1y was in Jaunary. During that period, the 1y1y rate declined 80bp+ and the 1y Vs. 1y1y flattened 60bp+.

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