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###(2/2) Views continued: - CSFB: Expect...>

ECB VIEW
ECB VIEW: ###(2/2) Views continued:
- CSFB: Expect ECB to be on hold but deliver a modest hawkish shift in tone at
press conference. Think ECB drop its symmetric policy bias that its prepared to
ease further if economic or financial conditions deteriorate but doubt will
provide specific end date for QE or when rates will rise.
- BNP: On balance ECB to opt for safe option and restate key aspects of its
forward language. Overall message should resemble Jan's meeting that patience
and persistence are still warranted. See FG change in April or June, end QE in
Dec after short taper and deliver first depo rate hike in June 2019.
- Nomura: Easing bias of QE (stand ready to increase QE in terms of size and/or
duration) will probably be dropped or at least amended. Staff forecasts to
reflect heightened optimism on growth and inflation.
- Lloyds: Believe it is too early for majority to agree to forward guidance
change due to inflation remaining subdued. See relatively "dovish communication"
by Draghi to persist for now.

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