### (2/3) ECB view continued: - JPM:.......>

ECB VIEW: ### (2/3) ECB view continued:

- JPM: Expect Draghi to downplay the significance of any market speculation

surrounding a shift of communications in March.

- MS: This weeks press conference will likely deliver a balanced message.

Forward guidance will evolve, but gradually and expect change in March. See no

more QE beyond Oct and depo rate rising in Mar 2019.

- Citi: Unlikely to see any change to interest rates, APP and forward guidance

but Draghi is likely to informally point at shifts coming in March. Moreover,

the opening statement should address FX rates for the first time since the

Sep-17 meeting.

- Nomura: Think ECB will more likely to err on the dovish side due to recent

inflation data being very subdued. 

- Natixis: Do not expect any policy decision or change in communication.

Forecast shift in focus of forward guidance towards rates from APP at

March/April meeting to pave way for end of QE announcement in Jun/Jul. No rate

hike before Mar-2019 with risks tilted to a later rate hike.