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2022 Hike Pricing Shoots Higher As Knot Open To 50bp In July
ECB's Knot comments that a 25bp July rate hike "seems realistic" but that "a bigger increase must not be excluded either" if incoming data suggests inflation is "broadening further or accumulating" (as reported by Reuters). He suggests "In that case a logical next step would amount (to) half a percentage point."
- ECB implied Dec meeting rate shot higher by ~8bp, from 0.38% to 0.46% (see chart). Settling down a little now but implies a little over 100bp of 2022 hikes. For July's meeting, pricing moved up 4bp to -0.30%, suggesting more than a quarter-point hike in July.
- EURUSD pushed above 1.05; resistance is at 1.0583, the 20-day EMA.
Source: BBG
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.