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2023 GDP Growth Comes In Below Consensus Forecast, Close To NBP Projection

POLAND

Data from Statistics Poland showed that GDP rose just 0.2% Y/Y last year, missing the +0.5% consensus forecast, but printing close to the NBP's forecast of +0.3% (the central bank's projection was updated in November). On the other hand, the outturn for 2022 was revised higher to +5.3% from +5.1%.

  • Pekao note that the data point to a weak end to 2023, with private consumption stagnant in Q4 despite a solid outturn for investments. They point to a notable impact of net exports and inventories, pulling in opposite directions.
  • The Polish Economic Institute write that weaker household spending (-1% Y/Y) created a drag on overall GDP growth, despite continued improvement in investments (+8% Y/Y). They expect GDP growth to accelerate to +2.3% Y/Y this year, mostly due to a recovery in consumption. They see the ongoing slowdown in the eurozone as the key downside risk to their forecast.
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Data from Statistics Poland showed that GDP rose just 0.2% Y/Y last year, missing the +0.5% consensus forecast, but printing close to the NBP's forecast of +0.3% (the central bank's projection was updated in November). On the other hand, the outturn for 2022 was revised higher to +5.3% from +5.1%.

  • Pekao note that the data point to a weak end to 2023, with private consumption stagnant in Q4 despite a solid outturn for investments. They point to a notable impact of net exports and inventories, pulling in opposite directions.
  • The Polish Economic Institute write that weaker household spending (-1% Y/Y) created a drag on overall GDP growth, despite continued improvement in investments (+8% Y/Y). They expect GDP growth to accelerate to +2.3% Y/Y this year, mostly due to a recovery in consumption. They see the ongoing slowdown in the eurozone as the key downside risk to their forecast.