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2023 Set For Weakest Activity Since At Least 2020 Lows

GLOBAL

The OECD's global leading indicators released earlier today point to 1H 2023 posting the weakest economic activity since at least the 2020 pandemic lows. See our note earlierwhich included a table of October's indices - below is a graphical representation.

  • Developed Europe is leading economic weakness, with no sign of momentum recovering. The US leading index has pulled back sharply since late 2021, but has steadied out somewhat in recent months.
  • The major Asian economies recovered more quickly than their Western counterparts in the pandemic, but the outlook is now mixed.
  • Japan's leading index, like the US's, is steadying. But unlike most of its peers, the Japanese LEI never really enjoyed a period of well-above average growth post-pandemic.
  • Meanwhile, Chinese LEI continues to edge lower. While the OECD notes some signs of Chinese stabilisation, growth is set to be below-trend.
  • India's LEI is weaker on the back of softer monetary readings (M1 contraction).


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The OECD's global leading indicators released earlier today point to 1H 2023 posting the weakest economic activity since at least the 2020 pandemic lows. See our note earlierwhich included a table of October's indices - below is a graphical representation.

  • Developed Europe is leading economic weakness, with no sign of momentum recovering. The US leading index has pulled back sharply since late 2021, but has steadied out somewhat in recent months.
  • The major Asian economies recovered more quickly than their Western counterparts in the pandemic, but the outlook is now mixed.
  • Japan's leading index, like the US's, is steadying. But unlike most of its peers, the Japanese LEI never really enjoyed a period of well-above average growth post-pandemic.
  • Meanwhile, Chinese LEI continues to edge lower. While the OECD notes some signs of Chinese stabilisation, growth is set to be below-trend.
  • India's LEI is weaker on the back of softer monetary readings (M1 contraction).


Keep reading...Show less