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2024 and 2025 Oil and Gas Investment Estimates Revised Higher

NORWAY
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Respondents to Statistics Norway’s Q2 oil and gas investment survey revised up their expectations for 2024 and 2025 investments.

  • Total 2025 investments including pipeline transportation were estimated at NOK216bln, 5.2% above the Q1 ‘24 survey’s estimate. “The increased estimate for field development is partly related to the fact that a PUD has been delivered for a new development project”.
  • 2024 investments are expected at NOK247bln, 1.3% higher than estimated last quarter. “It is increased estimates within fields on stream and exploration that drive the increase from the previous survey”.
  • The chart below shows that estimates provided in this survey are generally revised higher over time, with the current estimate for 2024 investments 36% higher than the indication provided in the Q2 ’23 survey.
  • Statistics Norway notes that the increase in 2024 estimates were driven by (1) high price growth due to the weakening NOK, (2) faster roll-out of some developments relative to initial plans and (3) higher development costs than initially estimated.
  • Statistics Norway do not expect these drivers to be present to the same extent in 2025, which should contribute to only “modest increases” in the investment estimates for 2025 going forward.

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Respondents to Statistics Norway’s Q2 oil and gas investment survey revised up their expectations for 2024 and 2025 investments.

  • Total 2025 investments including pipeline transportation were estimated at NOK216bln, 5.2% above the Q1 ‘24 survey’s estimate. “The increased estimate for field development is partly related to the fact that a PUD has been delivered for a new development project”.
  • 2024 investments are expected at NOK247bln, 1.3% higher than estimated last quarter. “It is increased estimates within fields on stream and exploration that drive the increase from the previous survey”.
  • The chart below shows that estimates provided in this survey are generally revised higher over time, with the current estimate for 2024 investments 36% higher than the indication provided in the Q2 ’23 survey.
  • Statistics Norway notes that the increase in 2024 estimates were driven by (1) high price growth due to the weakening NOK, (2) faster roll-out of some developments relative to initial plans and (3) higher development costs than initially estimated.
  • Statistics Norway do not expect these drivers to be present to the same extent in 2025, which should contribute to only “modest increases” in the investment estimates for 2025 going forward.