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2024 Fed Implied Rates Drift Lower Ahead Of SLOOS

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed for 2023 meetings and only price a little over 1/3 odds of an additional hike, but beyond that have seen a modest drift lower for 2024 meetings in the past couple hours ahead of the SLOOS release.
  • There has been little by way of headline drivers, leaving a dovish Goolsbee (’23 voter) and a small miss for the MNI Chicago PMI (42.8 vs cons 43.4) to set the tone.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +4.5bp Sep (unch), +9.5bp Nov (+0.5bp).
  • Cuts from Nov terminal: 4bp to Dec’23 (unch), 56bp to Jun’24 (from 53bp yesterday) and 127bp to Dec’24 (from 124bp).

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