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EUROPEAN INFLATION: 2025 Weightings Update Marginally Decreased Inflation in Jan

EUROPEAN INFLATION
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The January 2025 Eurozone HICP flash release also contained a weightings update for the main categories (which we thought would only come with the final data). We estimate that this update contributed a negative 0.014 percentage points to this month's flash release when looking at the latest monthly changes (of -0.28% M/M for HICP), mostly on the back of a decrease in weighting of the energy category, which saw a sequential jump in January.

  • In the coming months, however, the impact on headline inflation of the reweighting appears likely to be positive, as services, in which price growth is currently the highest out of the main categories on the yearly rate, received a weighting boost of around 0.75pp.
  • Overall, the impact on headline inflation should be limited - that also applies for a weightings update of the subcategories, which appears yet to be released.
  • Weighting comparison table see below:
image
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The January 2025 Eurozone HICP flash release also contained a weightings update for the main categories (which we thought would only come with the final data). We estimate that this update contributed a negative 0.014 percentage points to this month's flash release when looking at the latest monthly changes (of -0.28% M/M for HICP), mostly on the back of a decrease in weighting of the energy category, which saw a sequential jump in January.

  • In the coming months, however, the impact on headline inflation of the reweighting appears likely to be positive, as services, in which price growth is currently the highest out of the main categories on the yearly rate, received a weighting boost of around 0.75pp.
  • Overall, the impact on headline inflation should be limited - that also applies for a weightings update of the subcategories, which appears yet to be released.
  • Weighting comparison table see below:
image