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25bp hikes no longer fully priced for BOE and ECB

STIR FUTURES
  • SONIA futures up to 32 ticks higher (Dec23 and Mar24), with the Mar24 contract marking a 60 tick move higher since Wednesday's close.
  • In terms of BOE pricing there is now less than 7bp priced for May (down from 17bp at yesterday's close) and a terminal 17bp priced by August (down from 29bp at yesterday's close). A cut from the peak is now fully priced this year for the BOE (-22bp cumulative from current levels).
  • Euribor futures up to 28 ticks higher on the day with Dec23 through Sep24 futures all up more than 40 ticks since the Wednesday close.
  • Markets now pricing 17bp for the ECB May meeting with a peak of just below 25bp by July. that rate cut is almost fully reversed by the February 2024 meeting.
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