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25bps Hike But Policy Path Revised Up

SWEDEN

The Riksbank have hiked 25bps to 4.00% as expected and the policy path has been shifted up for all quarters till 2026.

  • The new terminal rate (forecasted to be held from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025) is 4.1% (vs 4.05% prior). The Q3 2023 rate is 4.09% implying a 36% chance of a November hike.
  • Most of the analyst previews we read expected a new terminal rate of between 4.10-4.15%.
  • The Riksbank note that "the forecast for the policy rate indicates that it could be raised further"

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