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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- The positive surprise in inflation on Friday led to a sharp upside move on the short end of the interest rate curve, with Polish 2Y bond yield up over 40bps in the past three days.
- We recently saw that the magnitude of the move in interest rates has been more important on the front end that on the long end of the curve, leading to a sharp flattening of the 2Y10Y yield curve in recent weeks.
- NBP is meeting tomorrow and is likely to surprise the market by maintaining the pace of its tightening cycle, by raising the policy rate by at least 40bps (vs. 25bps consensus).
- Despite the rise in Covid uncertainty that may lead to a significant downward revision in growth expectations, forward rates have continued to surge as market participants are expecting the NBP to raise interest rates sharply in the coming meetings.
- The FRA 3Mx6M is currently trading 144bps above the WIbor 3M.
- Polish 2Y yield is currently trading at its highest level since July 2017 (see chart); next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 2.29%.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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