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2Y Tsys Futures Testing Overnight Lows, Kamala Favored To Lead Dems

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are a touch lower today, although TUU4 is underperforming slightly which look to be linked to growing uncertainty around who will lead the Democrats to the next election. Multiple prominent Democrats are calling for Biden to step down with Jim costa the latest.
  • TUU4 is -0-00⅞ at 102-17¼, just above the Thursday lows of 102-17⅛, while TYU4 is -0-01+ at 111-05+.
  • The cash treasury curve has bull-flattened this morning with the 2yr -0.3bps at 4.468%, while the 10yr is -1.4bp at 4.19% just above July lows of 4.144%
  • The Fed's Daly spoke earlier, she acknowledged the improvement in inflation, but that we still have a way to go. Her comments were largely in line with other Fed speakers, there was no reaction from the market.
  • The markets will likely be focused on any comments out from the Biden Administration today, as there is little data out globally to move markets, outside of corporate earnings. PredictIt currently has Kamala at 59%, Biden at 17%, Whitmer at 14% chance to lead the Democrats to the next election.
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