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2Y Yield Through Post-CPI High, 30Y Supply Due Later

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsy yields sit 0.5-2bp higher, led by the front end for a bear flattening with 2s10s at -44.5bps. They underperform EGBs, weighed by dovish ECB speak, but outperform Gilts amidst supply.
  • TYM4 trades close to session lows of 111-04 (- 01+) on cumulative volumes of 285k, higher than the steady starts to this week’s sessions but low compared to last week. It’s close to yesterday’s low of 111-02+, an initial support level, but the pullback is considered corrective with resistance seen at 112-04+ (Mar 8 high).
  • Today sees a particularly quiet session, headlined by 30-year supply. Greater focus is on tomorrow’s retail sales and PPI data, the latter as always watched closely for PCE implications and especially after softer medical care services in yesterday’s CPI report.
  • Data: Weekly MBA mortgage data, Mar 8 (0700ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $39B 30Y reopen (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy 17W bill auction (1130ET)
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